AKP still well ahead
Recent opinion polls put the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan well ahead of their opponents.
Three pollsters, Konsensus, Andy-AR and ORC have put the AKP between 48.9% and 51.2% of the vote. In the 2007 election they took 46.66% and 341 of the 550 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly.
Second in the polls is the Republican People’s Party (CHP) with between 25.2% and 28.8%. In 2007 they took 20.85% of the vote and 112 seats.
Third, and currently the only other party likely to have representation in the next parliament is the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) with between 10.7 and 11.3%. They took 76 seats and 14.29% of the vote in 2007.
Although there are a number of other parties standing, the only other likely to gain some seats is the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), although this will be touch and go as they currently stand on 4.3% to 6.0% of the vote. They are the successor party to the Democratic Society Party which was closed down for its connections with the Kurdish PKK.
The AKP is credited with growing the economy and raising the level of personal income for most Turkish voters. There are concerns that they wish to change the constitution in a way that will give more personal power to the prime minister or even create a new executive president. They would require 330 seats to change the constitution, but this would be highly controversial without the support of other parties.