New Zealand

New poll keeps National ahead


A new poll by Stratos for iPredict Election 2011 keeps the National Party ahead in the polls with no change from previous polls. There is also no change for the main opposition Labour Party. If the new poll is correct, it will give National about 60 seats in the 120 seat House of Representatives.

Some journalists are predicting that the so called Teapot Tape might be a ‘game changer’, but as yet the tapes have not been released. Last Friday Prime Minister and National Party leader John Key had tea with John Banks an ACT candidate (ACT are currently part of the government coalition). The meeting was secretly taped by a journalist but it has not been released. Key has asked the police to investigate and yesterday walked out of an interview when asked repeatedly to reveal the discussion.

Although there is no indication that the tape will be released it has given the opposition parties an opportunity to speculate about its content. John Key looks condemned by the incident. Because he won’t reveal the content it looks as if it may be damaging, equally the opposition have been free to speculate about the content whilst it remains undisclosed.

Public opinion seems split on the matter with some people expressing disgust at the act of recording a private conversation and others, the conspiracy theorists speculating over the content and assuming the worst.

There are ten days to go before the poll on 26th November.

The new poll shows the parties as follows:

National 47.0% no change
Labour 28.5% no change
Greens 11.3% +0.2%
New Zealand First 4.6% +0.6%
Act 3.1% -0.1%
Mana Party 2.0% no change
Conservative 1.6% no change
Maori Party 1.3% no change
United Future 0.9% -0.1%

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