Change of government likely in general election today


If the opinion polls are correct then the people of Poland are planning to vote in a brand new government today. It looks very much as though the ruling centre-right Civic Platform (PO) led by Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz will be booted out and replaced by Law and Justice (PiS) led by Beata Szydlo.

In this election the 460 seats in the lower house or Sejm and the 100 seats in the upper house or Senate are up for election.

Opinion polls suggest that Law and Justice is on around 35.3% of the vote compared with 29.89% in 2011. Civic Platform are on 24.4% of the vote compared with 39.18% in 2011 with their coalition partners, the Polish People’s Party (PSL) down to around 4.7% from 8.36% in 2011.

In the 2011 general election the centre-right Civic Platform (PO) won 207 seats in the lower house with the more right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) coming second with 157 seats.

Civic Platform eventually formed a coalition government with the centre-right Polish People’s Party (PSL) which had won 28 seats.

In the 2015 general election there is a new movement called the United Left (ZL) consisting of the left-wing Your Movement (TR) (formerly Palikot’s Movement – RP) with 40 seats, the centre-left Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) with 27 seats and two other parties who currently have no representation, the centre-left Labour United (UP) and the left-wing The Greens (PZ).

The United Left don’t appear to be making much headway and are somewhere around 8% of the vote. The brand new right-wing Eurosceptic party, the Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Freedom and Hope (KORWIN) appears to be picking up around 4.4% to 6% of the vote.

The threshold for single parties to gain representation is 5% and for alliances it is 8%. There are 30,564,605 eligible voters.

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