Late surge by NDP


The New Democratic Party (NDP) appears to have made a late surge in the Canadian general election with polling day on Monday 2nd May.

There have been seven polls published in the past few days from five different polling agencies. Taking the average from the seven polls the NDP are in a clear second place on 29.3% with the Liberals appearing to go in to a power dive in the final few days of the campaign.

The Liberals who started on around 28% are now standing on an average of 22.3% with reported infighting and a scramble to protect seats that at the start of the campaign should have been safe.

The Conservatives have also fallen back slightly to 35.3%, far off what is needed for a majority government. If the polls stay as they are then the Conservatives are likely to win around 141 seats; in 2008 they took 143 seats. However, the Conservatives have been running a highly targeted campaign, focussing on just 20 swing seats. That could help them to pick up some seats unexpectedly.

Another factor is the split between the opposition parties. The NDP advance is patchy, they are doing very well in Quebec, putting Bloc Québécois well down in the polls, and this could mean the Conservatives doing well in some seats as the opposition vote is split. Canada has a first past the post (FPTP) electoral system.

Averaged results for all the parties over the seven polls is:

Conservatives 35.3%
New Democratic Party 29.3%
Liberals 22.3%
Bloc Québécois 6.1%
Greens 5.8%.

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