NDP go up in polls
The New Democratic Party (NDP) appears to have made a slight leap in recent opinion polls in Canada as we enter the final week of the campaign.
Five opinion polls have been published in the last few days and all of them show the NDP doing better, and in several cases overtaking the main opposition Liberals.
The NDP started the campaign on around 17% of the vote, today their average over the last five polls is 23.9% with one poll putting them as high as 25%. In Atlantic Canada they are up to 31.2% of the vote and in Quebec appear to have benefitted to the detriment of the Bloc Québécois (BQ) who have dropped 8%, the NDP now stand on 26.3%.
The election takes place on Monday 2nd May which is just over a week to go. If there was likely to be a burning issues that had set alight the campaign is would probably have happened by now. That suggests that all of the parties are going in to the final phase of the campaign in much the same way as they started.
Taking the average of the five polls, the Conservatives are standing on 38% (the top poll of the five puts them on 43%). That is not enough to give them a majority in the next parliament.
The Liberals are on 24.3%, down about 3% or 4% on the start of the campaign. That means they haven’t made a breakthrough and have slipped back somewhat.
The Bloc Québécois are on 6.68%, a couple of points down from the start of the campaign. In Quebec itself, the only province in which they stand, they have slipped back from around 40% at the start of the campaign to 32% (if we take the best of the five polls this week).
The Greens are languishing on 4.94%, not enough to get them any seats in the next parliament.