NDP lead in opinion polls as election nears


The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy has published a projection of the possible outcome of the general election in Canada due to take place in October this year. The projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of over 8000 respondents conducted by Ipsos, Angus Reid, and Ekos during the past month.

The figures would suggest that the New Democratic Party (NDP) would emerge as the largest party at the election by taking a projected 130 seats up from their current 103 seats but well short of the 170 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left NDP led by Thomas (Tom) Mulcair started to overtake the traditional opposition party, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau in early May. The most recent poll by Forum Research puts the NDP on 36% (30.63% in 2011) ahead of the ruling Conservatives who are on 28% (39.62 in 2011).

The projection suggests that the centre-right Conservatives led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper will slip from 166 seats won in the 2011 general election to 119 seats, eleven seats behind the NDP.

Meanwhile the centre-left Liberals are on 28% support up from 18.91% in 2011 to give them 86 seats up from 34 seats in 2011.

You can find the projections and more information on individual ridings here.

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