Tight state election predicted


The fate of the CDU/FDP coalition government in the 69 seat Schleswig-Holstein Landtag will be decided today as voters go to the poll in the 2.8 million population state.

In 2009 Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came tops with 31.5% and taking 34 seats. Their Free Democratic Party (FDP) partners took 14 seats with 14.9%. The recent collapse of the FDP changes all of that.

Today the CDU are standing on anything between 32% and 36% of the vote according to recent opinion polls whilst the FDP vote has collapsed to around 6% or 7%. With the threshold for winning seats at 5% it will be tight for the FDP to win any seats.

The main opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) took 25 seats and 25.4% of the vote in 2009. Latest opinion polls put them on anything between 25% and 33%.

The latest party to hit the German political scene, The Pirates are also doing well on around 11% of the vote, whilst Die Linke (The Left) appear to have collapsed from 6% in 2009 to 2% today. The Alliance ‘90/The Greens are on around 12%, about the same as in 2009 as are the South Schleswig Voter Federation (SSW), a Danish minority party on 4%.

The likely options for Angela Merkel is a grand alliance with the SPD similar to that prior to the 2009 poll. However, the SPD might decide to form an alliance with the Greens and SSW and block the CDU out of government.

Results are expected soon after the polls close at 6 p.m. local time.

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