Polls show SP dropping back
The latest opinion polls suggest that a leader’s debate which took place on 26th August in the Dutch general election has become a change maker.
Prior to the debate the Socialist Party (SP) led by Emile Roemer was storming ahead and taking votes away from the traditionally much stronger Labour Party (PvdA). However all commentators are saying that Roemer came across as weak whilst leader of the PvdA, Diederik Samsom, spoke extremely well and looked like a prime minister in waiting.
The result of the debate means that the Socialist Party has dropped from a high of 35 seats at one point to around 27 expected seats currently.
An Ipsos Netherlands poll puts the current largest party, the People’s Freedom and Democracy Party (VVD) on 22.1% with an estimated 34 seats. In the 2010 general election they took 31 seats.
The Socialist Party (SP) are still fractionally ahead of Labour with 27 seats and 17.1% of the vote but appear to be losing votes back to Labour; the SP had 15 seats in the 2010 election. The Labour Party (PvdA) is currently on 16.6% and 26 seats where they had 30 seats after the 2010 election.
The Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders, the right wing party whose departure from the coalition government led to its collapse earlier this year, is on 13.2% or an expected 20 seats; that would put them down from the 24 seats they took in 2010.
The other two notable parties in the election are the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) who stands at 8.9% or an expected 13 seats down from 21 seats in 2010 and the Democrats 66 who are on 9.2% or an expected 14 seats up from 10 seats in 2010.
The general election will be held on 12th September for the 150 seat House of Representatives. Most observers are expecting a long drawn out effort to form a coalition government after the election.